6 Key Indicators — Right Now
Brent Crude Oil
$105/bbl
🔴 SELL ZONE — above $105
LME Copper
$14,900/t
🔴 SELL ZONE — above $9,000
VLCC Tanker Rates
$320k/day
🔴 SELL ZONE — above $75k
Baltic Dry Index
3,180 pts
⚠️ APPROACHING SELL (3,000)
Recession Probability
41%
⚠️ ELEVATED — Late cycle
EUR 10-Year Rate
3.5%
🔴 SELL ZONE — above 3.5%
The SO WHAT
What does this mean for investors?
🔴 Reduce / Avoid
European oil stocks — Brent at SELL
Copper miners — above SELL threshold
Tanker stocks — VLCC near SELL zone
High-PE growth stocks — late cycle
Copper miners — above SELL threshold
Tanker stocks — VLCC near SELL zone
High-PE growth stocks — late cycle
🟢 Watch / Hold
Defence stocks — structural demand
Fertilizer (Yara) — urea still neutral
Renewable energy — wait for EUR rate BUY
Cash — preserve for next cycle entry
Fertilizer (Yara) — urea still neutral
Renewable energy — wait for EUR rate BUY
Cash — preserve for next cycle entry
Not financial advice. Signycle is a macro signal tool. Past cycles do not guarantee future returns.
Recession Probability
54%
→ Full recession tracker
Market Cycle Indicator
125 yrs
→ Every cycle since 1900
Global Liquidity
Mixed
→ Liquidity cycle dashboard
Frequently Asked Questions
Where are we in the market cycle in 2026?
The current cycle phase, cycle score, recession probability, and how many of the five key commodity signals are in SELL territory are all shown live at the top of this page — they update automatically as Brent, copper, VLCC rates, the Baltic Dry Index, and the EUR 10-year rate move. Scroll up for the current reading.
Is now a good time to buy European stocks?
For commodity-linked cyclicals — no. Brent crude and copper are both above their historical SELL thresholds, meaning these sectors are priced for peak-cycle conditions. The best entry points occur when signals are at BUY levels, not SELL levels. However, defensive positions in European defence stocks (NATO rearmament cycle still early) and waiting for the EUR 10-year rate to fall below 1.5% for renewables may offer opportunities.
What happens next in the cycle?
From Late Expansion, there are two paths: (1) Soft landing — oil prices fall as the Hormuz crisis resolves, PMI recovers above 50, recession is avoided, and the cycle extends into another expansion. (2) Recession — sustained high oil prices crush demand, PMI falls below 48, credit conditions tighten, and European equities enter a bear market. The next Signycle BUY opportunity emerges in either case when Brent falls below $50 and key signals hit their BUY thresholds.
How often is this page updated?
Brent crude, LME copper, and the EUR 10-year rate are pulled live and refresh automatically as prices move. The Baltic Dry Index and VLCC tanker rates are updated manually as new data becomes available. The "Updated live" timestamp at the top of this page always reflects the most recent data refresh.