6 Key Indicators — Right Now
Brent Crude Oil
103/bbl
🔴 SELL ZONE — at threshold
LME Copper
$11930/t
🔴 SELL ZONE — above $9,000
VLCC Tanker Rates
$280k+/day
⚠️ APPROACHING SELL ($75k)
Baltic Dry Index
2037 pts
🟡 NEUTRAL (900–3,000)
Recession Probability
56%
⚠️ ELEVATED — Late cycle
EUR 10-Year Rate
2.6%
🟡 NEUTRAL (BUY <1.5%)
The SO WHAT
What does this mean for investors?
🔴 Reduce / Avoid
European oil stocks — Brent at SELL
Copper miners — above SELL threshold
Tanker stocks — VLCC near SELL zone
High-PE growth stocks — late cycle
Copper miners — above SELL threshold
Tanker stocks — VLCC near SELL zone
High-PE growth stocks — late cycle
🟢 Watch / Hold
Defence stocks — structural demand
Fertilizer (Yara) — urea still neutral
Renewable energy — wait for EUR rate BUY
Cash — preserve for next cycle entry
Fertilizer (Yara) — urea still neutral
Renewable energy — wait for EUR rate BUY
Cash — preserve for next cycle entry
Not financial advice. Signycle is a macro signal tool. Past cycles do not guarantee future returns.
Recession Probability
54%
→ Full recession tracker
Market Cycle Indicator
125 yrs
→ Every cycle since 1900
Global Liquidity
Mixed
→ Liquidity cycle dashboard
Frequently Asked Questions
Where are we in the market cycle in 2026?
Late Expansion. The Signycle cycle score is 68/100 — high risk. Three of seven key signals are in SELL territory (Brent crude, copper, VLCC rates). PMI has fallen below 50. Recession probability is 56%. The Hormuz crisis oil shock is accelerating the late-cycle dynamic. The economy has not yet tipped into recession, but the window for new cyclical positions is closing.
Is now a good time to buy European stocks?
For commodity-linked cyclicals — no. Brent crude and copper are both above their historical SELL thresholds, meaning these sectors are priced for peak-cycle conditions. The best entry points occur when signals are at BUY levels, not SELL levels. However, defensive positions in European defence stocks (NATO rearmament cycle still early) and waiting for the EUR 10-year rate to fall below 1.5% for renewables may offer opportunities.
What happens next in the cycle?
From Late Expansion, there are two paths: (1) Soft landing — oil prices fall as the Hormuz crisis resolves, PMI recovers above 50, recession is avoided, and the cycle extends into another expansion. (2) Recession — sustained high oil prices crush demand, PMI falls below 48, credit conditions tighten, and European equities enter a bear market. The next Signycle BUY opportunity emerges in either case when Brent falls below $50 and key signals hit their BUY thresholds.
How often is this page updated?
The cycle assessment is updated every Monday morning using the latest available macro data. Signal values (Brent, copper) are updated live via the Signycle API. PMI, BDI and other signals are updated manually weekly. The last update was 20 March 2026.