Iron ore, Brent crude, soybean prices and pulp — mapped to B3's most important cyclical stocks. Brazil is a global commodity powerhouse: the world's largest iron ore and soy exporter.
Iron ore, Brent crude, soybean prices and pulp — mapped to B3's most important cyclical stocks. Brazil is a global commodity powerhouse: the world's largest iron ore and soy exporter.
| Stock | Ticker | Signal | Value now | Best cycle | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vale | VALE3.SA | Iron ore | $105/t | +280% | HOLD |
| Petrobras | PETR4.SA | Brent crude | $111/bbl | +360% | SELL |
| Suzano | SUZB3.SA | Pulp price | Mid-cycle | +220% | HOLD |
| Gerdau | GGBR4.SA | HRC steel | ~$700/t | +200% | HOLD |
| Klabin | KLBN11.SA | Pulp + packaging | Mid-cycle | +180% | HOLD |
| SLC Agricola | SLCE3.SA | Soybean price | ~$370/t | +160% | HOLD |
| Usiminas | USIM5.SA | Iron ore + HRC steel | Mid-cycle | +160% | HOLD |
| CSN Mineracao | CMIN3.SA | Iron ore | $105/t | +180% | HOLD |
| BrasilAgro | AGRO3.SA | Soy + farmland | ~$370/t | +140% | HOLD |
Iron ore $105/t (NEUTRAL): Vale is the world's largest iron ore producer and mid-cycle at $105/t. China property recovery is the key upside catalyst. Vale's extraordinary dividend ($11+ billion in 2021) tracks iron ore prices directly.
Brent $111 (SELL): Petrobras is in late-cycle territory. Brazil's pre-salt oil fields produce at very low cost (~$5/bbl) — so Petrobras generates extraordinary margins at $111. But the sell signal is driven by peak Brent, not Petrobras quality.
Pulp (NEUTRAL): Suzano and Klabin track hardwood pulp prices. Brazil's eucalyptus-based pulp is the world's lowest-cost production (~$200/t vs global $400+/t). Mid-cycle — hold.
Soy (NEUTRAL): Brazil is the world's largest soy exporter. SLC Agricola and BrasilAgro track soybean prices at ~$370/t. Mid-cycle. Watch for La Nina/El Nino weather impacts on crop production.
B3 is one of the most underappreciated exchanges for cyclical investors — Vale alone tracks iron ore, copper and nickel simultaneously, while Petrobras provides Brazil's most direct Brent exposure.
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Join the Waitlist — Free →What are the best cyclical stocks on B3 Brazil?
Vale (VALE3.SA) for iron ore, Petrobras (PETR4.SA) for Brent crude, Suzano for pulp, Gerdau for steel and SLC Agricola for soybeans are the strongest signal-driven cyclicals on B3.
Why is Vale such a strong cyclical signal stock?
Vale's earnings are almost entirely determined by iron ore prices (62% Fe CFR China). At iron ore peaks, Vale has paid extraordinary dividends — over $11 billion in 2021. The dividend yield becomes extreme at iron ore peaks (15%+) — a textbook sell signal. Below $80/t iron ore is the buy zone.
How does Petrobras' dividend work?
Petrobras pays 45–60% of free cash flow as dividends. At Brent $111/bbl, Petrobras generates extraordinary cash flows from its low-cost pre-salt fields. This creates very high dividend yields — which are sell signals, not buy signals. Also note: Brazilian government ownership means political risk can affect dividend policy.
What is Brazil's soy cycle signal?
Brazil produces approximately 40% of the world's soybeans. Soy prices track global protein demand, Chinese imports and crop production. Above $450/t soy is late cycle for Brazilian agri stocks; below $300/t is the buy zone. At ~$370/t, mid-cycle.