Current cycle position: Cycle score 81/100 — late cycle. Brent $108 (SELL), copper $12,043/t (DEEP SELL), recession probability 54%.
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HISTORICAL PERIODS
What happened to signals and stocks in every major cycle since 2008.
Highest conviction entry
2008–2011 · All Signals
The 2008 GFC — All Signals Fire Simultaneously
Brent $35, copper $2,825/t, BDI 663. Every signal hit BUY at once — the greatest commodity bull run followed.
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Patient cycle2015–2016 · Oil + BDI + Copper
The Oil Crash and China Slowdown
Brent fell to $27. The BDI hit 290 — an all-time low. The longest trough since the 1980s, and +467% in Glencore.
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Fastest recovery
2020–2022 · All Signals
The COVID Cycle — Fastest Recovery Ever
Brent went negative. BDI hit 393. Then +963% in Golden Ocean, +621% in Frontline in under 18 months.
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Geopolitical cycle2022–2026 · Energy + Defence
Ukraine Invasion — Energy and Defence Supercycle
Brent $139, gas +325%, defence stocks begin multi-year rearmament. Rheinmetall +767%.
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SIGNAL COMBINATIONS
What to buy when specific signals cross their thresholds — with historical returns.
+107% to +487%
Brent < $40/bbl
When Brent Falls Below $40
Occurred 3 times since 2000. Every time, oil stocks returned 107–487%. Here's the exact playbook.
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+191% to +963%BDI < 1,000 pts
When the BDI Falls Below 1,000
4 occurrences since 2008. Golden Ocean averaged +537% return from BDI trough. The most reliable signal.
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+245% to +1,140%Copper < $5,000/t
When Copper Falls Below $5,000
3 occurrences. Freeport-McMoRan averaged +676% return from copper trough. The Dr. Copper playbook.
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MACRO REGIMES
How different economic environments affect cyclical stocks — inflation, recession, recovery.
Best entry points
Macro Regime · Recession
Cyclical Stocks During Recessions
Recessions destroy cyclical prices — and create the best buying opportunities. Historical playbook for every recession since 2000.
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Natural hedgesMacro Regime · Inflation
Cyclical Stocks During High Inflation
High inflation is the natural habitat of commodity stocks — but not all sectors benefit equally. Here's what history shows.
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Sector sequencingMacro Regime · Recovery
The Recovery Phase — Which Stocks Lead
Shipping leads, oil lags. Every time. Here's the historical sequencing of sector recoveries with returns from 2009, 2016 and 2020.
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SECTOR ROTATION
How to move between sectors as the cycle evolves.
Quick reference — Historical cycle returns
| Cycle | Best signal | Best stock | Return | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GFC 2009 | Copper $2,825/t | Freeport-McMoRan | +1,140% | 25 months |
| 2016 | Steel PMI | ArcelorMittal | +700% | 36 months |
| COVID 2020 | BDI 393 pts | Golden Ocean | +963% | 17 months |
| COVID 2020 | VLCC $15k/day | Frontline | +621% | 20 months |
| Ukraine 2022 | NATO spending | Rheinmetall | +767% | 48 months |
Get alerted when the next cycle BUY signal fires
Signycle monitors 18 commodity and macro signals in real time. When signals cross into historical BUY territory, Pro subscribers get an email before the recovery begins.
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