Global PMI, HRC steel, Brent crude and Turkish inflation/rates — mapped to Istanbul's most important cyclical stocks. Turkey is a major steel producer and energy transit hub at the crossroads of Europe and Asia.
Global PMI, HRC steel, Brent crude and Turkish inflation/rates — mapped to Istanbul's most important cyclical stocks. Turkey is a major steel producer and energy transit hub at the crossroads of Europe and Asia.
| Stock | Ticker | Signal | Value now | Best cycle | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eregli Demir Celik (Erdemir) | EREGL.IS | Global HRC steel | ~$700/t | +280% | HOLD |
| Kardemir | KRDMD.IS | HRC steel + PMI | ~$700/t | +240% | HOLD |
| Tupras | TUPRS.IS | Brent crude + refining | $111/bbl | +220% | SELL |
| Koc Holding | KCHOL.IS | Multi-sector + PMI | PMI 51.4 | +180% | HOLD |
| Sabanci Holding | SAHOL.IS | Multi-sector + PMI | PMI 51.4 | +160% | HOLD |
| Petkim | PETKM.IS | Naphtha + PMI | $111/bbl naphtha | +160% | HOLD |
| Garanti BBVA | GARAN.IS | TRY rates + GDP | High rates | +140% | HOLD |
| Akbank | AKBNK.IS | TRY rates + GDP | High rates | +140% | HOLD |
| Turkcell | TCELL.IS | Consumer + inflation | High inflation | +130% | HOLD |
| Aselsan | ASELS.IS | NATO rearmament | Defence boom | +200% | BUY |
| Enka Insaat | ENKAI.IS | Construction + Brent | Multi-signal | +160% | HOLD |
HRC Steel (NEUTRAL): Eregli (Erdemir) and Kardemir are Turkey's largest steelmakers — mid-cycle at $700/t global HRC. Turkey's domestic steel demand is driven by construction and manufacturing.
Brent $111 (SELL): Tupras is Turkey's largest refiner and directly exposed to Brent. At $111/bbl, Tupras revenues are high but the sell signal applies. Turkey is a major oil and gas transit country (Bosphorus, pipelines).
TRY inflation (COMPLEX): Turkish stocks in TRY terms have performed differently from USD terms due to the currency crisis. International investors must factor in TRY/USD devaluation risk. TRY rates at very high levels (currently normalising from 40%+) complicate all valuations.
Defence (BUY): Aselsan is Turkey's leading defence electronics company benefiting from NATO rearmament and Turkey's growing defence export ambitions. Structural buy cycle.
Turkish stocks carry unique currency risk — always evaluate returns in both TRY and USD terms. High inflation can make local returns look strong while USD returns are poor.
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Eregli/Erdemir (EREGL.IS) for steel, Tupras (TUPRS.IS) for refining/Brent, Koc Holding for diversified PMI exposure and Aselsan for defence rearmament are the strongest signal-driven cyclicals on BIST.
How does Turkish inflation affect BIST investments?
Turkish inflation has been extremely high (75%+ in 2022–23). In TRY terms, BIST stocks have appreciated significantly. In USD terms, gains have been partially or fully offset by TRY devaluation. International investors should focus on USD-denominated returns and hedge TRY exposure where possible.
What is Tupras and why does Brent affect it?
Tupras is Turkey's only oil refiner, processing crude oil into diesel, jet fuel, gasoline and petrochemicals. Its refining margin (the difference between crude input cost and product revenue) is the key signal — not Brent alone. High Brent raises input costs; the crack spread (refining margin) is what matters.
Why is Aselsan a buy signal?
Aselsan develops electronic warfare, radar, communications and missile systems for the Turkish military and export customers. Turkey has been expanding its defence export programme. NATO rearmament creates both domestic demand (Turkey's own military) and regional export opportunities. Multi-year structural cycle.