Signycle tracks commodity and macro signals — each with a historically-derived BUY threshold and SELL threshold. When a signal crosses a threshold, it has historically preceded significant moves in linked cyclical stocks.
Commodity cycles are long and predictable compared to equity cycles. Iron ore, copper, oil and shipping rates move in multi-year cycles driven by supply/demand imbalances. When you know where a commodity is in its cycle — and map it to the stocks that follow that commodity — you have an edge.
Signycle does three things: (1) tracks 18 commodity and macro signals in real time, (2) compares each to its historical BUY and SELL threshold, and (3) maps each signal to the stocks most likely to benefit or suffer when that threshold is crossed.
Each signal is a commodity or macro indicator with a long enough history to derive meaningful thresholds. The signals span energy, metals, shipping, agriculture and macroeconomic indicators:
All signals are sourced from established financial and commodity data providers. Data is cross-checked across multiple sources before being updated:
Thresholds are derived from 20–40 years of historical data for each signal, identifying the price levels at which forward returns for linked stocks have historically been strongest (BUY) or weakest/negative (SELL).
The methodology is not quantitative in a strict statistical sense — it is pattern-based and observational. We identify the prices at which past cycles have turned, and use those as reference points. The thresholds are reviewed annually and updated when structural changes in markets warrant revision.
Specifically, for each signal we look at: (1) historical cycle peaks and troughs, (2) the price levels where demand destruction or demand surge has historically occurred, (3) the relationship between signal value and subsequent 12-24 month stock returns for linked equities.
Commodity cycles are driven by supply/demand economics with long lag times. When oil is at $20/bbl, producers cut investment — setting up the next shortage. When oil is at $100+/bbl, demand destruction sets in and investment in alternatives accelerates. These dynamics are structural, not statistical, which is why the thresholds have remained relevant across decades.
The Signycle Cycle Score aggregates all 18 signals into a single number representing where the overall macro cycle stands — from 0 (deepest BUY opportunity across all signals) to 100 (maximum SELL territory across all signals).
Each signal contributes equally to the score. A signal in BUY zone contributes 0 points. A signal at the midpoint contributes 50 points. A signal in SELL zone contributes 100 points. The score is the simple average across all 18 signals.
Current cycle score: 82/100 — Late Expansion. The last Deep BUY score below 25 was recorded in April 2020 during COVID-19.
You don't need a Bloomberg Terminal to track commodity cycles. Here's how Signycle fits in the landscape.
| Feature | Signycle | Bloomberg | MacroMicro | Koyfin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | Free | ~$25,000/yr | $200–400/yr | $500–1,200/yr |
| Commodity cycle BUY/SELL thresholds | ✅ | ❌ | ❌ | ❌ |
| Stock-to-signal mapping (250+ stocks) | ✅ | Manual | ❌ | ❌ |
| Historical backtest per signal | ✅ | Manual | ✅ | Partial |
| European/Nordic exchange focus | ✅ Deep | ✅ | Limited | Limited |
| Shipping signals (BDI, VLCC, LNG) | ✅ | ✅ | Partial | ❌ |
| Macro breadth (40m+ indicators) | ❌ Focused | ✅ | ✅ | Partial |
Signycle is purpose-built for cyclical stock investors. Broad macro platforms are better for institutional research across all asset classes.
All 18 signals updated daily. Current cycle score: 82/100.