Hormuz Ceasefire Extended — Iran Attacks 3 Ships — Crisis Dashboard — Day 53
Strait of Hormuz
Signal Dashboard
All commodity signals affected by the Hormuz crisis — Brent, WTI, spread, tanker rates, LNG, urea, gold. Updated 19 Aug 2026. Brent and gold rising together again — Brent $94, gold at a fresh high $4,523.
Timeline
Mar 3 — Conflict begins
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Mar 4 — Hormuz partially blocked
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Mar 10 — Brent hits $100
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Mar 18 — Brent peaks $126
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Mar 19 — Fed holds, gold volatile — $4,660
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Mar 20 — Brent $109 · Peak
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Mar 24 — Trump postpones Iran strikes
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Apr 2 — Brent $109 · Situation ongoing
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Apr 4 — Trump issues 48h ultimatum
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Apr 6 — Deadline day · Strait 90%+ closed · Brent $109
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Apr 7 — Trump: "whole civilization dies tonight"
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Apr 8 — US-Iran 2-week CEASEFIRE · Brent -15% to $93
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Apr 9-11 — Ceasefire holds but Hormuz stays closed · Iran charges $1M+ tolls · 230 tankers stranded
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Apr 12 — Islamabad talks FAIL · Trump declares US Navy blockade · Brent +8% to $103
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Apr 13-16 — US Navy blockade of Iranian ports · 23 ships turned back · Brent ~$95
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Apr 17 — Iran FM: Hormuz open for commercial vessels · Brent -10% to $89
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Apr 18 — IRGC reverses · Hormuz closed again · Tankers fired on
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Apr 19-20 — US Navy seizes Iranian cargo ship · Brent +5.6% to $95
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Apr 21 — Trump extends ceasefire · Blockade continues · Brent ~$95
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Apr 22 — Iran attacks 3 ships in Hormuz · Talks collapse · Brent climbing
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May 23 — Trump: deal “largely negotiated” · Brent falls toward $100 · Spread narrows to $3.6
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May 25–29 — Preliminary agreement: 60-day ceasefire + Hormuz reopens + Iran clears mines in 30 days
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1 Jun — US strikes Iranian sites again · Brent bounces from $92 to $95 · Deal momentum fades
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6 Jun — Iran launches drones toward Hormuz · Targeting commercial vessels & US forces · Warning shots near strait
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7 Jun — Iran fires missiles at Israel · Israel kills Lebanon general · Trump dismisses “no new wars” concerns
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8 Jun — Israel strikes Iranian petrochemical plant · Iran retaliates with missiles · Most serious confrontation since April truce · Brent $96
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9 Jun — Deal negotiations stalled · Lebanon ceasefire blocking broader agreement · Brent SELL zone · VIX +40% · Escalation ongoing → 11 Jun — Talks resume · Trump: 80% chance of deal · Brent falls below $87 → 15 Jun — US–Iran interim agreement · Hormuz reopening begins · Brent drops to low $80s · Gold ~$4,340 → 19 Jun — Strait of Hormuz reopened · Tankers resume transit · US Navy lifts port restrictions · Brent ~$80 · Risk premium unwound → 23 Jun — Brent below $77 · Qatar/Pakistan broker 60-day roadmap · Iran exports 30M+ barrels/week via Hormuz · Gold falls to ~$4,120 on Fed rate-hike bets → 6 Jul — OPEC+ raises August output +188k bpd · Hormuz flows normalized (Saudi ~90% pre-war) · Brent below $72 · Supply-glut concerns → 8 Jul — CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES · US revokes Iran oil waiver · Attacks on Qatari LNG & Saudi tanker · Iran strikes 85 US bases · Brent surges to ~$79 → 9 Jul — Brent +9.75% in one day to $83 · Trump statements reignite oil market · Analysts warn this may be only the start → 16 Jul — Brent $88 (+22% in nine days) · Gold turns up to $4,018 · Risk premium now fully rebuilt · SELL zone ($105) within reach → 21 Jul — Brent $90 · Gold $4,065 · Both still climbing · $15 from SELL threshold → 23 Jul — Brent $98 · Gold $4,097 · Up 37% since 6 Jul low · Less than $7 from SELL threshold → 23 Jul (late) — BRENT BREAKS $100 (+7.68%) · Equities sell off (S&P −1.2%, Nasdaq −2.2%) · Gold falls to $4,048 · Only $4 from SELL threshold → 3 Aug — Brent falls back to $83 (−7.4%) · Peak of $101 held below the $105 SELL line · Premium unwinding · Gold recovers to $4,065 → 17 Aug — Brent steady at $88 · Gold surges to $4,398 (safe-haven bid returns) · Range-bound oil, rising gold → 19 Aug — Brent jumps to $94 (+2.3%) · Gold sets fresh high at $4,523 · Both climbing together again · $11 from SELL threshold
Energy signals — directly Hormuz-driven
Brent Crude
$93.67
per barrel
▲ +4% — deal stalled · June escalation
NEAR SELL
BUY $50SELL $105
WTI Crude
$93
per barrel
▲ +4% — escalation continues
NEAR SELL
BUY $45SELL $103
Brent/WTI Spread
$8.90
geopolitical premium
▲ widening · ship attacks re-pricing risk premium
ELEVATED
Normal $2–5Peak $14
VLCC Rate
$495k
per day
Ship attacks · war-risk insurance spiking
SELL ZONE
BUY $15kSELL $75k
LNG Rate
$55k
per day
▲ blockade escalation · LNG rerouting
NEAR SELL
BUY $30kSELL $120k
Urea / Fertilizer
$530
per tonne
↑ from $310 · Hormuz supply cut
NEAR SELL
BUY $230SELL $620
Brent/WTI Spread — Hormuz premium history
2019
Saudi Aramco drone attack
$10 peak
NOW
Hormuz Apr 2026 — Compressed
$6.00
Spread at $8.90 widening after Iran attacked 3 ships in Hormuz on Apr 22, hours after Trump extended the ceasefire "indefinitely". Still below the $14 peak but above the $2–5 normal range. Watch for a break above $10 if attacks continue, or compression below $5 if US-Iran talks restart.
Key questions to watch
If spread widens above $10
Blockade standoff entrenched
With ceasefire extended indefinitely but Iran attacking ships in Hormuz (Apr 22), a spread above $10 would confirm the risk premium is re-pricing. VLCC rates stay at $495k and war-risk insurance stays elevated. Watch for Brent breaking $110.
If spread falls below $5
De-escalation confirmed
Risk premium unwinding in oil. But VLCC rates will lag oil prices by weeks — physical tanker traffic only returns once Iran lifts Hormuz restrictions AND the US lifts its port blockade. War-risk insurance needs to normalise too.
BDI next print
Watch for below 1,500
BDI currently 2,567 — neutral. A fall below 1,500 would confirm the oil shock is feeding into real demand weakness and not just a supply-driven spike.
Iran ship attacks escalation
Insurance premium driver
Iran attacked 3 ships in Hormuz on Apr 22 hours after Trump extended the ceasefire "indefinitely". Each attack raises war-risk insurance for tankers. If attacks continue daily, VLCC spot rates stay elevated regardless of the formal ceasefire status. Watch for US Navy response.
Most affected stocks — by signal
Track all 18 signals live
Cycle score 72/100 · 5 signals in SELL zone · Recession 52%