Iron ore, thermal coal, hard coking coal and LNG prices — mapped to ASX's most important cyclical stocks. Australia is the world's largest coal and iron ore exporter.
Iron ore, thermal coal, hard coking coal and LNG prices — mapped to ASX's most important cyclical stocks. Australia is the world's largest coal and iron ore exporter.
| Stock | Ticker | Signal | Value now | Best cycle | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group | BHP | Iron ore + Copper | $105/t + $12,043/t | +233% | HOLD |
| Rio Tinto | RIO | Iron ore | $105/t | +206% | HOLD |
| Fortescue | FMG | Iron ore | $105/t | +380% | HOLD |
| Yancoal Australia | YAL | Thermal coal | $130/t | +338% | HOLD |
| Whitehaven Coal | WHC | HCC + Thermal | $215/t + $130/t | +483% | HOLD |
| Woodside Energy | WDS | LNG + Brent | ~$12/MMBtu | +180% | HOLD |
| Santos | STO | LNG + Brent | ~$12/MMBtu | +160% | HOLD |
| Newmont | NEM | Gold price | $3,200+/oz | +250% | SELL |
| Northern Star | NST | Gold price | $3,200+/oz | +280% | SELL |
| South32 | S32 | Coal + Manganese | Multi-signal | +180% | HOLD |
| Coronado Global | CRN | Hard coking coal | $215/t | +220% | HOLD |
Iron ore $105/t (NEUTRAL): BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are mid-cycle. China's property recovery is the key catalyst — watch for genuine construction activity data.
Coal (NEUTRAL): Yancoal and Whitehaven are in hold territory. The 2022 peak was thermal $450/t — current prices are well off those levels. Buy signal below $80/t thermal.
Gold (SELL): Gold at $3,200+/oz is in deep sell territory. Newmont and Northern Star have had exceptional runs — reduce gold exposure.
LNG (HOLD): Woodside and Santos mid-cycle. Australian LNG is long-term contracted with Japan and Korea — less volatile than European spot LNG.
ASX coal companies (Yancoal, Whitehaven) pay extraordinarily high dividends at peaks — 33% and 35%+ respectively in 2022. These are yield trap warnings. Sell when yield is high, not buy.
Weekly updates across all macro signals mapped to your holdings.
Join the Waitlist — Free →What are the best cyclical stocks on ASX?
BHP (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RIO) for iron ore, Yancoal (YAL) and Whitehaven (WHC) for coal, Woodside Energy (WDS) for LNG, and Newmont (NEM) for gold are the strongest signal-driven cyclical stocks on ASX.
Why did Yancoal pay 33% yield in 2022?
Thermal coal surged to $450/t following Russia-Ukraine war. Yancoal distributes 60–80% of profits — so extraordinary earnings led to extraordinary dividends. The 33% yield was a sell signal, not a buy.
What is the iron ore signal for ASX miners?
Iron ore above $150/t is sell territory. Below $80/t is the buy zone. At $105/t, all three major miners are mid-cycle — hold. Key driver is Chinese steel demand.
How do Australian franking credits work?
Australian dividends carry franking credits representing 30% corporate tax already paid. Australian resident investors can offset this against income tax. The effective yield is higher than the headline figure for domestic investors.