Brent crude, urea prices, LME copper and Global PMI — mapped to Tadawul's most important cyclical stocks. Saudi Arabia's exchange is dominated by energy and petrochemicals at peak-cycle levels.
Brent crude, urea prices, LME copper and Global PMI — mapped to Tadawul's most important cyclical stocks. Saudi Arabia's exchange is dominated by energy and petrochemicals at peak-cycle levels.
| Stock | Ticker | Signal | Value now | Best cycle | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Aramco | 2222.SR | Brent crude | $111/bbl | +280% | SELL |
| SABIC | 2010.SR | Petrochemicals + PMI | Mid-cycle | +180% | HOLD |
| SAFCO | 2020.SR | Urea price | $270/t | +220% | HOLD |
| Saudi Kayan | 2350.SR | Petrochemicals | Mid-cycle | +160% | HOLD |
| Ma'aden | 1211.SR | Phosphate + Copper | $12,043/t Cu | +200% | SELL |
| Petro Rabigh | 2380.SR | Brent + refining | $111/bbl | +140% | SELL |
| Saudi Cement | 3030.SR | Vision 2030 + PMI | Infrastructure | +160% | BUY |
| Yamama Cement | 3020.SR | Saudi GDP + PMI | Infrastructure | +140% | BUY |
| Yansab | 2290.SR | Petrochemicals | Mid-cycle | +150% | HOLD |
| Saudi Electricity (SEC) | 5110.SR | Saudi GDP + Brent | Mixed | +120% | HOLD |
Brent $111/bbl (SELL): Saudi Aramco is in late-cycle territory. At $111/bbl, Aramco generates extraordinary cash flows — and extraordinary dividends — but the Brent sell signal is clear. The Hormuz crisis has added a premium that will resolve.
Petrochemicals (NEUTRAL): SABIC, Saudi Kayan and Yansab are mid-cycle on ethylene and downstream polymer spreads. High feedstock (naphtha/ethane) costs from elevated Brent partially offset revenue benefits. Hold.
Urea $270/t (NEUTRAL): SAFCO is mid-cycle. Urea at $270/t is above trough ($200/t) but far below the 2022 peak ($900/t). SAFCO's extraordinary cost advantage (~$50/t vs global $150–200/t) means it is profitable at almost any urea price.
Vision 2030 infrastructure (BUY signal emerging): Saudi cement companies benefit from the structural construction boom driven by Vision 2030 mega-projects (NEOM, Red Sea, Diriyah Gate). This is a multi-year structural driver independent of commodity cycles.
Tadawul is one of the few exchanges where both commodity-cycle signals AND a structural government investment cycle operate simultaneously.
Weekly updates across all macro signals mapped to your holdings.
Join the Waitlist — Free →What are the best cyclical stocks on Tadawul?
Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) for Brent crude, SABIC (2010.SR) for petrochemicals, SAFCO (2020.SR) for urea, Ma'aden (1211.SR) for mining and Saudi Cement (3030.SR) for Vision 2030 infrastructure are the strongest signal-driven cyclicals on Tadawul.
Why is SAFCO's urea cost so low?
SAFCO benefits from subsidised natural gas feedstock from Saudi Aramco at below-market prices. Natural gas is the primary input for urea production. SAFCO's cost (~$50/t) is a fraction of global producers ($150–200/t), making it profitable even at trough urea prices.
What is Vision 2030 and how does it affect Tadawul?
Vision 2030 is Saudi Arabia's long-term economic diversification programme with $1+ trillion in planned infrastructure investment (NEOM, Red Sea Project, Diriyah Gate etc). This creates a structural multi-year demand boom for cement, construction materials and building contractors independent of commodity price cycles.
How does the Hormuz crisis affect Saudi stocks?
Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are a significant risk for Saudi oil exports. While higher oil prices benefit Saudi Aramco's revenues, actual closure would disrupt Saudi export capacity. The crisis creates a premium in Brent that has elevated energy stocks beyond fundamental levels.