6 European steel stocks use the Steel HRC price signal. When HRC falls below $380/tonne, all 6 de-rate alongside the steel market. When it recovers above $1,100/tonne, all 6 recover — but at very different rates. Here is how the 2014–2019 steel cycle compared.
| # | Stock | Exchange | Return | Duration | Cycle | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ArcelorMittalMT | Amsterdam | 56 mnd | Dec 2014 → Aug 2019 | Read → | |
| 2 | JSWJSW | Warsaw | 56 mnd | Dec 2014 → Aug 2019 | Read → | |
| 3 | ThyssenKruppTKA | Frankfurt | 56 mnd | Dec 2014 → Aug 2019 | Read → | |
| 4 | voestalpineVOE | Vienna | 56 mnd | Dec 2014 → Aug 2019 | Read → | |
| 5 | SSABSSAB | Stockholm | 56 mnd | Dec 2014 → Aug 2019 | Read → | |
| 6 | BekaertBEKB | Brussels | 56 mnd | Dec 2014 → Aug 2019 | Read → |
ArcelorMittal's +314% and JSW's +267% both reflect near-distress entry points in the 2014–2016 steel trough. ArcelorMittal cut its dividend and raised equity in early 2016 at near-historic lows. JSW, as Europe's largest coking coal producer, had an even more leveraged position because coking coal prices fall even harder than steel prices at cycle lows. For pure steel cycle leverage, both outperform the more stable premium producers (voestalpine, Bekaert).
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