Brent crude has experienced five major price cycles since 2010, each driven by a unique combination of supply shocks, demand changes and geopolitical events. Understanding these cycles is the foundation for timing investments in European oil stocks.
Five Brent Cycles Since 2010
| Period | Trough | Peak | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010–2012 | $70 (2010) | $127 (Mar 2012) | Arab Spring, Libyan supply loss |
| 2014–2018 | $27 (Jan 2016) | $86 (Oct 2018) | US shale glut → OPEC cuts |
| 2020–2022 | $19 (Apr 2020) | $139 (Mar 2022) | COVID collapse → Russia-Ukraine war |
| 2022–2025 | $58 (Dec 2025) | $96 (Oct 2023) | OPEC+ cuts, gradual demand recovery |
| 2026–present | $65 (Jan 2026) | $119 (intraday Mar) | Hormuz crisis — Iran mines strait |
The $100 Barrier
Brent has crossed $100/barrel only four times since 2010 — in 2011–2014, briefly in 2018, in 2022 during the Ukraine war, and now in 2026 during the Hormuz crisis. Each previous crossing above $100 ultimately preceded a significant correction as demand destruction set in.
Current Status
Brent at $104 in March 2026 — the Signycle SELL threshold. The EIA forecasts a fall below $80 in Q3 2026 and $70 by year-end if the Hormuz crisis resolves.