Iran mined the Strait of Hormuz on 28 February 2026. Brent crude has surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time in four years. VLCC rates have more than doubled. Tanker traffic is down over 70%. Here is what this means for each of Signycle's key signals.
On 28 February 2026, Iranian naval forces deployed mines across the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which approximately 21% of global oil supply passes daily. The move came after escalating US sanctions and was followed by Iranian warnings to vessels transiting the strait. Within 72 hours, most major tanker operators had suspended routes through Hormuz, and oil prices began their rapid ascent.
Brent crude crossed the Signycle SELL threshold of $100/barrel on 4 March and peaked at $106 on 14 March. As of 17 March it stands at $104 following some diplomatic progress in Oman talks. The Signycle model uses $100 as the SELL threshold because historically oil above $100 for sustained periods has preceded either a demand collapse or recession within 12–18 months.
For European oil stocks — Equinor, Aker BP, DNO, TotalEnergies — this is a sell signal on the cycle, not because they stop making money (they make more), but because the market has typically already priced in the upside by the time the signal triggers.
VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) spot rates have risen from approximately $28k/day before the crisis to $280k+/day today — a 143% increase. The Signycle SELL threshold for VLCC rates is $75k/day. At $68k we are approaching but not yet there. Stocks like Frontline and Hunter Group have rallied sharply. The cycle signal says: hold but watch for the $75k trigger.
The BDI has held steady at 2,028 points despite the crisis. This is because the BDI measures dry bulk shipping (iron ore, coal, grain) rather than oil tankers. Some trade diversion is visible — vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope are adding voyage time — but the overall dry bulk market has not yet been significantly disrupted. BDI remains in neutral territory (900–3,000).
The Hormuz crisis has pushed the Signycle recession probability from 45% to 52%. Oil price shocks have historically been among the most reliable recession triggers — the 1973 embargo, the 1979 Iranian revolution, and the 1990 Gulf War all preceded recessions within 12 months. The key variable is duration: if Hormuz remains disrupted for 6+ months, European growth could turn negative. If resolved within 2–3 months, recession may be avoided. See the full recession probability tracker.
The Hormuz crisis has accelerated an already late-cycle dynamic. Commodity signals were approaching SELL levels before the crisis; the oil shock has pushed them over the threshold faster than the base case anticipated. The market cycle indicator score is now 79/100 — Late Expansion with elevated recession risk. This is not the environment for initiating new positions in oil-linked cyclicals.
Iran minela Hormuzstredet 28. februar 2026. Brent crude har passert $100 per fat for første gang på fire år. VLCC-rater er mer enn doblet. Tankskiptrafikken er ned 70%+. Her er hva dette betyr for hvert av Signycles nøkkelsignaler.
28. februar 2026 deployerte iranske marinestyrker miner i Hormuzstredet — den smale vannveien der ca. 21% av verdens daglige oljeforsyning passerer. Trekket kom etter eskalerende amerikanske sanksjoner og ble etterfulgt av iranske advarsler til fartøy som passerte stredet. Innen 72 timer hadde de fleste store tankskipoperatørene suspendert ruter gjennom Hormuz, og oljeprisene begynte å stige raskt.
Brent crude krysset Signycles SELL-terskel på $100/fat 4. mars og nådde toppen på $106 den 14. mars. Per 17. mars er den på $104 etter noe diplomatisk fremgang i Oman-samtalene. Signycle-modellen bruker $100 som SELL-terskel fordi oljepriser over $100 i lengre perioder historisk sett har gått foran enten et etterspørselskollaps eller en resesjon innen 12–18 måneder.
Hormuz-krisen har akselerert en allerede sent-syklisk dynamikk. Råvaresignaler nærmet seg SELL-nivåer før krisen; oljesjokket har dyttet dem over terskelen raskere enn basisscenarioet forutså. Markedssyklus-indikatoren scorer nå 79/100 — Sen ekspansjon med forhøyet resesjonsrisiko.