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Tadawul Saudi Arabia · 2020.SR · Fertilizers & Urea

SAFCO (2020.SR) — Saudi Fertilizers & Urea Cycle Guide

Signycle Research8 min readTadawul Saudi Arabia
📸Snapshot: Urea ~$270/t · Saudi gas feedstock at $0.75/MMBtu · Agricultural demand stable as of 4 Apr 2026 — see live signals.

Saudi Arabian Fertilizers Company (SAFCO, Tadawul: 2020) is Saudi Arabia's largest fertilizer producer, manufacturing urea and ammonia from highly subsidised natural gas at Al-Jubail. SAFCO's world-lowest production cost (~$50–80/t urea) means it is profitable at virtually any global urea price. For cyclical investors, it is the purest urea-cycle play on Tadawul — with one of the highest dividend yields in Saudi markets.

Signycle Signal — SAFCO (Urea Price)
BUY: Urea below $200/t — BUY 2020.SR. SAFCO profitable even at $100/t; trough pricing maximises cycle upside.
SELL: Urea above $500/t — SELL 2020.SR. Peak margins with capacity addition risk.
CURRENT: Urea ~$270/t neutral. NEUTRAL.

Historical Cycle Returns

CycleUrea entry2020 buy (SAR)2020 sell (SAR)ReturnDuration
Ukraine spikeUrea $200 (2021)SAR 100SAR 220+120%18 months
COVID recoveryUrea $180 (2020)SAR 70SAR 160+129%20 months
GFC recoveryUrea $150 (2009)SAR 40SAR 130+225%26 months

World's Lowest Urea Production Cost

SAFCO's feedstock — Saudi natural gas at ~$0.75/MMBtu — is one-tenth of global spot LNG prices. This gives SAFCO a cash production cost of ~$50–80/t urea, meaning it generates margin at virtually any global urea price above $100/t. This cost structure makes SAFCO a distribution-focused stock rather than a high-risk commodity play.

High Dividend Policy

With low capex requirements and structurally profitable operations, SAFCO distributes most of its free cash flow as dividends. It is historically one of Tadawul's highest-yielding stocks, attracting income-oriented investors alongside commodity cycle participants.

Key Data

MetricValue
ExchangeTadawul Saudi Arabia
Ticker2020.SR
Primary signalUrea price
Gas cost~$0.75/MMBtu (subsidised)
ParentSABIC (70%)
Best cycle return+225% (GFC recovery, 26 months)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Why is SAFCO so profitable?

SAFCO sources natural gas at ~$0.75/MMBtu (heavily subsidised Saudi price vs global $5–15). This gives it the world's lowest urea production cost — profitable at virtually any global urea price.

Is SAFCO a good dividend stock?

Historically yes. SAFCO distributes most of its free cash flow as dividends. Yields tend to be highest at urea price troughs — creating attractive income entry points.

How does SAFCO relate to SABIC?

SABIC owns ~70% of SAFCO and supplies natural gas feedstock. SABIC is itself 70% owned by Saudi Aramco. SAFCO is a downstream gas monetisation vehicle for the Saudi energy ecosystem.

Macro Cycle Intelligence
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