Aselsan (BIST: ASELS) is Turkey's largest defense electronics company, developing radar systems, electronic warfare equipment and drone avionics for the Turkish Armed Forces and 50+ export markets. Majority owned by the Turkish Armed Forces Foundation, Aselsan benefits from NATO rearmament, Turkey's growing defense ambitions and Bayraktar TB2 drone export success. Unlike most cyclical stocks, Aselsan is partly counter-cyclical to PMI — defense spending tends to hold or rise in downturns.
Historical Cycle Returns
| Cycle | Entry signal | Buy | Sell | Return | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia-Ukraine rearmament | NATO rearm (2022) | TRY 20 | TRY 80 | +300% | 24 months |
| COVID defense spending | Budget increase (2020) | TRY 12 | TRY 38 | +217% | 20 months |
| Syrian conflict | Regional conflict (2015) | TRY 4 | TRY 18 | +350% | 30 months |
Counter-Cyclical to PMI Downturns
Unlike most cyclical stocks, Aselsan often performs well during economic downturns. Governments maintain or increase defense spending during geopolitical stress — especially Turkey, surrounded by conflict zones (Syria, Iraq, the Russia-Ukraine corridor, Hormuz). The 2022 NATO rearmament wave created significant export demand for Aselsan's radar and electronic warfare systems.
Drone Electronics — The Growth Segment
Aselsan supplies the avionics, targeting and communications for Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 drone — a system that gained global attention in Ukraine and Libya. TB2 exports to 20+ countries have created recurring follow-on demand for Aselsan sub-systems. This export growth is structural and largely PMI-independent.
Key Data
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Istanbul BIST |
| Ticker | ASELS |
| Primary signal | Defense budgets + geopolitical risk |
| Owner | Turkish Armed Forces Foundation (majority) |
| Key products | Radar, EW, drone avionics, comms |
| Best cycle return | +350% (Syrian conflict cycle) |
Track this signal automatically
Weekly cycle updates across 18 macro indicators — free early access.
Join the Waitlist →Frequently Asked Questions
Is Aselsan counter-cyclical?
Partially. Defense spending holds or rises during economic downturns, making Aselsan more defensive than most cyclicals. It is pro-cyclical with geopolitical risk — rising conflict risk drives defense budgets.
How does the TB2 drone affect Aselsan?
Aselsan supplies electronics and sub-systems for the Bayraktar TB2, manufactured by Baykar. TB2's export success (20+ countries) creates recurring demand for Aselsan components in operator countries.
Is Aselsan an inflation hedge?
Defense contracts in Turkey are often inflation-indexed. In a high-inflation environment (Turkey's structural situation), this provides some earnings protection against lira depreciation.