Home 📖 Learning Hub Where are we in the cycle? Live Signals How it works Coming Soon Cycle Screener Cycle Dashboard Signal Backtest Live Signals Recession Tracker Liquidity Cycle Hormuz Dashboard Dividend Scanner Stock Comparison Precious Metals WTI vs Brent
North America
South America
Europe
Africa & Middle East
Asia Pacific
All 49+ Exchanges All Scenarios 2008 GFC — All Signals Fire 2020 COVID — Fastest Recovery Sector Rotation Guide Recession Playbook Signycle Research 🌎 Investor Guides Podcasts Watch How it works FAQ About Early Access →
ASX Australia · Mining

Coronado Global Resources — Coking Coal Cycle

Signycle Research6 min readASX Australia
📸Snapshot article — figures reflect data at publication. See live-signals.html for current values.

Coronado Global Resources is an ASX-listed metallurgical coal producer — operating the Curragh mine in Queensland (Australia's largest coking coal mine by volume) and the Buchanan mine in Virginia (US). Coronado produces both hard coking coal (HCC) and semi-hard coking coal (SHCC) — essential ingredients for blast furnace steel production. With operations across two continents serving Asian and European steel mills, Coronado is one of the most leveraged listed coking coal cycle plays globally.

Signycle Signal Thresholds
BUY signal: Hard coking coal falls below $180/t AND global steel blast furnace utilisation drops — entry signal
SELL signal: Coking coal rises above $280/t AND steel production recovers — exit zone

Curragh: Australia's Largest Coking Coal Mine

Coronado's Curragh operation in Queensland's Bowen Basin is one of the world's largest open-cut metallurgical coal mines — producing approximately 13–15 million tonnes annually of coking and thermal coal. Curragh's scale provides significant cost advantages through equipment utilisation and infrastructure sharing. The mine's Queensland location gives direct access to the Dalrymple Bay and Wiggins Island coal terminals for Asian export.

Buchanan: US Premium HCC

The Buchanan mine in Virginia produces premium hard coking coal — one of the highest-quality metallurgical coal grades globally, used in demanding blast furnace operations requiring low-ash, low-sulphur coking coal. Buchanan's premium product commands significant price premiums over Australian benchmark HCC. US Appalachian coal exports to European steel mills provide geographic diversification from Asian market exposure.

Steel Production Signal

Coronado's revenues track the global premium hard coking coal benchmark — set through quarterly negotiations between Australian producers and Japanese, Korean and Chinese steel mills. The benchmark price ranged from $100/t (2020 trough) to $670/t (2022 Ukraine shock peak). At $300+ HCC, Coronado generates extraordinary free cash flow. Steel production utilisation rates — particularly blast furnace capacity in Japan, Korea, India and Europe — are the primary demand signal.

Variable Dividend: The Yield Cycle

Coronado operates a variable dividend policy — distributing substantial free cash flow at peak coal prices. During the 2021–2022 coking coal surge, Coronado paid extraordinary dividends that approached or exceeded the stock purchase price for early investors. This variable yield makes Coronado attractive for income-oriented commodity cycle investors.

Cycle Performance Summary

ParameterValue
ExchangeASX Australia
TickerCRN.ASX
Primary SignalHard coking coal price
Buy ThresholdHCC < $180/t
Sell ThresholdHCC > $280/t
CurraghAustralia's largest coking coal mine
BuchananVirginia premium HCC — US operations
Cycle Return (2020–2022)+220%

Track this signal in real time

Signycle Pro monitors Hard Coking Coal Price and 16 other macro indicators — alerting you when the next cycle turns.

Join the Pro waitlist →
Signal Alert
Get alerted when AKRBP signal changes
Currently tracking: Brent crude: $108/bbl
Join Pro waitlist →
Macro Cycle Intelligence
Where are we in the cycle? 📉 Recession probability: 54% 📈 Market cycle indicator history