Signycle · Signal

NATO Defence Spending

Source: NATO / SIPRI

2.4 % of GDP

NEUTRAL

BUY <2.0 SELL >3.5

Average NATO member defence spending as a percentage of GDP. The structural rearmament cycle driven by Russia-Ukraine war and rising geopolitical tensions across Europe and Asia.

Signal Thresholds

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BUY: NATO spending below 2.0% GDP — defence stocks underloved, BUY zone

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SELL: NATO spending above 3.5% GDP — defence stocks at peak, reduce exposure

Key Cycle Dates

Date	Level	Event
Feb 2022	1.8%	Russia invades Ukraine — rearmament begins
Jan 2024	2.3%	NATO target hit — momentum accelerating
Apr 2026	2.4%	Ongoing expansion — still mid-cycle

Key Stocks — this signal

→ Rheinmetall Frankfurt XETRA → Kongsberg Gruppen Oslo Børs → Saab Nasdaq Stockholm → BAE Systems London

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