Two of the most popular cyclical sectors on Oslo Børs — oil and shipping. Both are commodity-driven, both are highly cyclical. But which delivers better returns when the cycle turns?
The Oil Cycle (Brent Signal)
The Brent crude signal has produced some of the strongest documented returns on Oslo Børs. In the 2020–2022 cycle, Aker BP delivered +388% over 87 months, Equinor +196% over 74 months, and Subsea 7 +130% over 74 months. The oil cycle is long — typically 5–8 years from trough to peak — giving investors time to build positions at low prices before the recovery becomes obvious.
| Stock | Signal | Return | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aker BP | Brent <$50 BUY | +388% | 87 mnd |
| Equinor | Brent <$50 BUY | +196% | 74 mnd |
| Subsea 7 | Brent <$50 BUY | +130% | 74 mnd |
| DNO | Brent <$50 BUY | +145% | 27 mnd |
The Shipping Cycle (VLCC + BDI Signals)
Shipping cycles are shorter and more violent than oil cycles — VLCC rates can move from $15,000/day to $100,000+/day within 12–18 months. Hunter Group delivered +217% in just 6 months during the 2020 VLCC rate spike. Dry bulk giant Star Bulk delivered +252% in 38 months on the BDI signal.
| Stock | Signal | Return | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Group | VLCC <$15k BUY | +217% | 6 mnd |
| Star Bulk | BDI <900 BUY | +252% | 38 mnd |
| Frontline | VLCC <$15k BUY | +139% | 68 mnd |
| Wallenius W. | PCTC <$9k BUY | +692% | 39 mnd |
The Verdict
Shipping cycles are faster and can produce extraordinary short-term returns (Hunter +217% in 6 months). Oil cycles are slower but more predictable and backed by a deeper macro signal (Brent). For investors with a 3–5 year horizon, oil typically offers better risk-adjusted returns. For investors comfortable with high volatility and short windows, shipping can produce exceptional returns — but the timing must be precise.
The best approach: use both. When Brent AND VLCC rates are simultaneously at buy thresholds — as in March 2020 — the combined portfolio of oil and tanker stocks can be exceptional.