FCX vs BHP on copper exposure, leverage and cycle positioning. LME copper at $12138/t — which is the better trade?
FCX is the most direct copper play on the NYSE. With Grasberg in Indonesia — one of the world's largest copper-gold mines — FCX earnings move almost entirely with LME copper. In a copper bull cycle, FCX outperforms BHP decisively.
BHP brings copper exposure (Escondida, Olympic Dam) alongside iron ore and potash. The dual listing on NYSE (BHP) and LSE adds liquidity. BHP is the lower-volatility copper trade — better for investors who want commodity exposure without single-metal concentration.
| Factor | Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) | BHP |
|---|---|---|
| Primary exposure | Copper + Gold (~80% of revenue) | Iron ore + Copper + Potash |
| Copper % of EBITDA | ~70% | ~30% |
| Key asset | Grasberg (Indonesia) | Escondida (Chile) |
| Leverage to copper | Very high — 10% copper move = ~25% EPS | Moderate — buffered by iron ore |
| 2020–22 bull cycle return | +312% | +159% |
| Dividend policy | Variable — follows copper price | Progressive + buybacks |
| Exchange | NYSE (FCX) | NYSE (BHP) · LSE (BHP) |
LME copper at $12138/t is in sell territory — elevated after the Hormuz-driven supply shock. At these levels, FCX trades at a rich premium and the risk-reward skews negative for new positions. BHP is somewhat cushioned by iron ore at $96/t (neutral).
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See disclaimer.