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HKEX Hong Kong ยท 1171.HK ยท Coal Mining

Yanzhou Coal Mining (1171.HK) โ€” Thermal Coal Cycle Guide

Signycle Research9 min readHKEX Hong Kong
📸Snapshot: Thermal coal ~$130/t ยท China PMI 51.2 ยท Yancoal Australia operations stable โ€” see live signals.

Yanzhou Coal Mining (HKEX: 1171) is one of China's largest listed coal companies, with operations in Shandong, Inner Mongolia and internationally through its Yancoal Australia subsidiary. As a seaborne coal exporter, Yanzhou offers exposure to both Chinese domestic coal demand and global thermal coal prices โ€” a broader cycle play than pure domestic miners.

Signycle Signal โ€” Yanzhou Coal (China PMI & Coal Price)
BUY: Thermal coal below $80/t AND China PMI rising above 51 โ€” BUY 1171.HK. Trough coal with recovering demand creates strong earnings recovery.
SELL: Thermal coal above $200/t โ€” SELL. Government price caps limit upside at extreme levels.
CURRENT: Coal $130/t elevated, PMI 51.2. Late cycle โ€” REDUCE.

Historical Cycle Returns

CycleEntry signalBuySellReturnDuration
COVID recoveryCoal $50/t (2020)HKD 5HKD 18+260%22 months
Ukraine energyCoal $100/t (2022)HKD 10HKD 22+120%10 months
GFC recoveryCoal $45/t (2009)HKD 3HKD 12+300%28 months

Yancoal Australia โ€” Seaborne Exposure

Yancoal Australia (ASX: YAL) operates thermal and coking coal mines in Queensland and NSW, exporting primarily to Japan, Korea and India. International exposure gives Yanzhou earnings sensitivity to seaborne prices โ€” which can diverge from Chinese domestic prices during import restrictions or government interventions.

Coking Coal Diversification

In addition to thermal coal, Yanzhou produces coking coal used in blast furnace steelmaking. This gives earnings exposure to steel demand cycles separately from power generation โ€” a useful diversifier within the coal sector.

Key Data

MetricValue
ExchangeHKEX + SSE dual-listed
Ticker1171.HK
Primary signalThermal coal price + China PMI
International armYancoal Australia (ASX: YAL)
Coal typesThermal + coking coal
Best cycle return+300% (GFC recovery)

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Yancoal Australia?

HKEX-listed Yanzhou's Australian subsidiary (ASX: YAL) operates NSW and Queensland coal mines, exporting thermal and coking coal to Asian buyers.

How does China's import policy affect Yanzhou?

China periodically restricts Australian coal imports for political reasons. During bans Yancoal Australia redirects coal to other Asian buyers at slightly lower prices.

What is coking coal vs thermal coal?

Thermal coal powers electricity plants; coking coal is used in blast furnace steelmaking. Yanzhou produces both, giving different end-market exposures.

Macro Cycle Intelligence
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