Norwegian salmon is trading at NOK 95/kg — NOK 13 above Signycle's SELL threshold of NOK 82/kg. The SELL signal has been active for several weeks. For investors in Mowi, SalMar or Grieg Seafood, this is the signal that historically precedes margin compression and stock price corrections.
Supply is the story. Norwegian salmon production growth slowed to just 2% in 2025 due to sea lice regulations and biological limitations at existing sites. Meanwhile, European demand — especially from France, Germany and Poland — held up strongly through winter. The imbalance has pushed spot prices to near-record levels for March.
The counter-argument: at NOK 95, salmon farmers are printing exceptional margins. EBITDA multiples remain reasonable for some names. But the signal is clear — this is not the entry point for new positions. The time to buy salmon stocks is when prices are near NOK 42–50, not NOK 95.
Cycle score 82/100 · 7 signals in SELL zone · Recession probability 54%
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