Paris — Euronext and the French Cyclical Market

Euronext Paris is home to three of Europe's most important cyclical companies: TotalEnergies (oil), Airbus (aerospace), and Michelin (industrial demand). Each responds to a different macro signal — but all three share the same underlying logic: buy the cycle lows, sell the cycle highs.

The CAC 40 as a Cyclical Index

The CAC 40 is more cyclically sensitive than commonly understood. Energy, industrials, materials, and luxury goods (which also follow consumer cycle signals) together account for over 50% of the index. This makes Paris one of the best hunting grounds for cycle investors in Europe.

The three Signycle-tracked Paris stocks represent different cycle expressions: TotalEnergies follows the Brent crude cycle, Airbus follows the aviation recovery cycle (Wide-Body Flying Hours), and Michelin follows the Global Manufacturing PMI.

TotalEnergies: The Brent Cycle

TotalEnergies is Europe's largest integrated oil company. The Brent signal (buy <$50/bbl, sell >$108/bbl) has been highly reliable for TTE over the past two cycles. The COVID recovery cycle generated +100% in 27 months (March 2020 to June 2022).

Airbus: The Aviation Cycle

Airbus is the world's largest commercial aircraft manufacturer. The Wide-Body Flying Hours signal (buy <80% of 2019, sell >108%) captured the full COVID aviation recovery: +96% in 37 months (October 2020 to November 2023).

Michelin: The PMI Cycle

Michelin is the world's second-largest tyre manufacturer. The Global PMI signal (buy <49.0, sell >53.5) generated +21% in the 2015-16 industrial cycle — a modest but reliable return with significantly lower volatility than energy or shipping stocks.

How to Follow Paris Signals

The three Paris signals fire at different times — Brent and Flying Hours are independent indicators from PMI. A Paris investor can run all three in parallel, sizing positions according to signal strength and personal risk tolerance.