Inpex Corporation (TSE: 1605) is Japan's largest upstream oil and gas exploration and production company, operating the giant Ichthys LNG project in Australia (the largest resource project in Australian history), along with assets in Abu Dhabi, Kazakhstan, Indonesia and other locations. As Japan's national upstream champion — majority owned by the Japanese government — Inpex trades as both a pure Brent-leveraged E&P and a strategic energy security asset. For cyclical investors, Inpex is the most direct way to access rising Brent crude on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Historical Cycle Returns
| Cycle | Brent entry | 1605 buy (JPY) | 1605 sell (JPY) | Return | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COVID recovery | Brent $20 (Apr 2020) | JPY 600 | JPY 1,800 | +200% | 24 months |
| Ukraine energy spike | Brent $60 (Jan 2021) | JPY 900 | JPY 1,800 | +100% | 16 months |
| GFC recovery | Brent $35 (Jan 2009) | JPY 400 | JPY 1,200 | +200% | 28 months |
Ichthys LNG — The Strategic Crown Jewel
Ichthys is one of the world's largest LNG projects, producing approximately 8.9 million tonnes per year of LNG from offshore fields in the Browse Basin off Western Australia. It cost over $40 billion to develop and came online in 2018–2019. Inpex holds a 66.2% operated stake — an unusually large share for an operator of this project size. Virtually all Ichthys LNG is sold to Japanese utilities under long-term oil-linked contracts, providing highly predictable cash flows that track Brent crude with a lag.
The Hormuz crisis of 2026 has elevated the strategic value of Ichthys further. Japan sources gas from multiple routes to reduce Hormuz dependency, and Australian LNG (which does not transit Hormuz) has seen a pricing premium emerge as buyers prioritise supply security.
Abu Dhabi and ADNOC Partnership
Inpex holds a 5% stake in ADNOC's onshore concession in Abu Dhabi — a legacy position from Japan's decades-long energy security strategy of securing Middle East upstream access. This stake generates dividends and provides Inpex with crude oil entitlements that are sold into Asian markets. The ADNOC partnership, while small relative to Ichthys, demonstrates Inpex's role as Japan's strategic energy procurement vehicle.
Key Data
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Tokyo TSE |
| Ticker | 1605 |
| Primary signal | Brent crude (oil-linked LNG contracts) |
| Key asset | Ichthys LNG, Australia (66% operated) |
| LNG production | ~8.9 million tonnes/year |
| Current signal | SELL — Brent $111, late-cycle |
| BUY threshold | Brent below $60/bbl |
| Best cycle return | +200% (COVID recovery, 24 months) |
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Join the Waitlist — Free →Frequently Asked Questions
What is Ichthys LNG?
Ichthys is Inpex's flagship LNG project in Western Australia, producing ~8.9 million tonnes per year of LNG. It took over a decade to develop and cost ~$40 billion. All output is sold to Japanese utilities under long-term oil-indexed contracts.
How does Brent crude affect Inpex?
Inpex's LNG contracts are indexed to crude oil prices, so Brent directly drives Inpex's revenue per unit of production. A $10/bbl move in Brent translates to approximately ¥50–70 billion change in Inpex's annual operating profit.
Is Inpex benefiting from the Hormuz crisis?
Yes. Australian LNG (Ichthys) does not transit Hormuz, giving it a supply security premium over Middle East gas. The crisis has elevated spot LNG prices and reinforced buyer appetite for long-term Australian supply contracts.