Evergreen Marine — Container Cycle

Evergreen Marine is Taiwan's largest container shipping company and one of the world's top 6 container lines — operating approximately 200 vessels with 1.6 million TEU capacity. Evergreen is a founding member of the Ocean Alliance (with COSCO and CMA CGM) and is famous as the operator of the Ever Given — the vessel that blocked the Suez Canal in 2021. As a pure-play container carrier, Evergreen's earnings are entirely driven by the SCFI freight rate cycle.

SCFI: The Revenue Driver

Evergreen's revenue per TEU tracks the SCFI with high correlation. During the 2021–2022 container freight boom, Evergreen generated record net profits exceeding NT$400B — a level that would have seemed impossible in its pre-COVID loss-making years. The SCFI collapse to below 1,000 in 2023 returned Evergreen to near-breakeven, illustrating the extreme earnings cyclicality of container shipping.

Taiwan Electronics Export Supply Chain

Evergreen serves Taiwan's technology export supply chain — carrying TSMC semiconductor packaging, laptop computers, industrial electronics and precision machinery from Taiwan to global markets. This premium cargo base provides higher average freight rates than commodity cargo-focused competitors. Strong Taiwan tech exports correlate with higher Evergreen cargo volumes and better rate achievement.

Fleet Renewal: LNG Dual-Fuel Vessels

Evergreen has invested heavily in LNG dual-fuel container ships — reducing fuel costs when LNG is cheap relative to conventional fuel oil and meeting IMO emissions regulations. These newer, more fuel-efficient vessels have lower operating costs per TEU than older ships, improving Evergreen's competitive position during freight rate downturns when cost efficiency is critical for survival.

The Ever Given Legacy: Operational Risk

The 2021 Suez Canal grounding of the Ever Given — which blocked global container trade for 6 days — generated enormous media attention and insurance claims. While the incident was resolved, it highlighted operational risk in large vessel management. Evergreen has since invested significantly in maritime operations training and vessel tracking systems.

Key Risks

Container vessel oversupply from the 2021–2022 ordering wave creates multi-year rate depression risk. Taiwan's geopolitical situation — potential China-Taiwan tensions — creates supply chain disruption risk that could reduce Taiwan tech export volumes. Alliance restructuring with COSCO and CMA CGM creates uncertainty around route coverage and slot sharing.

Cycle Performance Summary