LME Copper is at /tonne — 41% above Signycle's SELL threshold of $9,000/tonne. The SELL signal has been active for months. This raises a profound question: is the SELL threshold simply too low for the energy transition era, or is copper genuinely in a bubble that will correct?
The structural argument for permanently higher copper prices is compelling. Each electric vehicle requires 4x the copper of a combustion vehicle. Each offshore wind turbine requires 10–15 tonnes. Grid modernisation across Europe and the US requires an estimated 50% more copper infrastructure by 2035. The International Energy Agency projects a structural supply deficit of 6–8 million tonnes annually by 2030.
China accounts for 55% of global copper demand. Chinese property construction — historically the largest copper consumer — remains deeply depressed. Copper's recent rise has been driven by financial flows, EV optimism and tight mining supply, not real physical demand growth matching the price. This pattern (financial premium over physical fundamentals) has historically corrected 30–50%.
Signycle's signal remains SELL. But this is one case where the signal invites genuine debate about whether the structural threshold has shifted. Our view: the energy transition is real, but financial markets have priced it in early. A 20–30% pullback to $9,000–10,000 is more likely than a sustained move to $15,000+ in the near term.
Cycle score 73/100 · 5 signals in SELL zone · Recession probability 55%
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