When economic cycles turn from contraction to expansion, certain sectors lead the recovery by months. Understanding the sequence is key to positioning ahead of the move.
1. Shipping (dry bulk) — BDI turns first as China restocks. 2. Copper miners — infrastructure demand recovers. 3. Energy — industrial demand picks up, oil recovers. 4. Fertilizers — agricultural demand follows. Watch for BDI below 900 and copper below $6,000 for the next recovery entry signal.