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Euronext Lisbon · Pulp & Paper

Altri — Pulp Prices & the Eucalyptus Fibre Cycle

Signycle Research6 min readEuronext Lisbon
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Altri is one of Portugal's largest listed companies and a focused eucalyptus bleached kraft pulp (BEKP) producer — operating three pulp mills in central Portugal powered almost entirely by renewable biomass energy. The NBSK pulp price signal is the definitive cycle driver: when pulp prices fall below $750/tonne, Altri's mills approach breakeven; when they recover above $1,350/tonne, margins are exceptional.

Signycle Thresholds — NBSK Pulp Price
BUY signal: NBSK Pulp Price drops below <$750/t — entry confirmed
SELL signal: NBSK Pulp Price rises above >$1,350/t — exit confirmed

Why NBSK Drives Altri

Altri's business is simpler than most European industrials: it grows eucalyptus trees, harvests them after 12 years, converts them to pulp, and sells the pulp to paper manufacturers globally. The single most important variable determining Altri's profitability is the NBSK pulp price — everything else (energy costs, fibre costs, logistics) is relatively stable. This makes Altri one of the purest NBSK signal expressions in the Signycle universe.

Portuguese eucalyptus is among the world's fastest-growing commercial wood fibre sources — reaching harvestable size in 12 years versus 25+ years for Nordic softwood. This creates a structural cost advantage that means Altri generates above-average margins at any given pulp price level.

The 2014–2017 Pulp Cycle: +114% in 34 Months

NBSK pulp fell below $750/tonne in late 2014 as new South American capacity came online. Altri fell to €3.5. The recovery — driven by accelerating Chinese pulp demand and supply discipline among producers — pushed NBSK above $1,350/tonne by October 2017. Altri reached €7.5 — a gain of 114% in 34 months, outperforming Navigator (+93%) and Stora Enso (+77%) in the same cycle.

Altri vs. Navigator

Altri (+114%) and Navigator (+93%) are both Portuguese eucalyptus pulp producers using the NBSK signal. Altri's higher return reflects its simpler, more concentrated pulp exposure — Navigator also produces paper, which dilutes the pure pulp cycle signal. For investors seeking a focused NBSK cycle play in Portugal, Altri is the purer expression.

Key Risks

Altri's main risks are wildfire risk in Portuguese eucalyptus plantations (which have caused significant damage in recent years), water availability constraints in central Portugal, and NBSK price volatility. The company's self-sufficiency in green energy (burning biomass waste) provides insulation from electricity cost inflation.

Cycle Performance Summary

ParameterValue
ExchangeEuronext Lisbon
SignalNBSK Pulp Price
Buy dateDecember 2014
Buy price€3.5
Sell dateOctober 2017
Sell price€7.5
Return+114%
Duration34 months

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