Akastor is a Norwegian oil service investment company — holding stakes in subsea drilling equipment suppliers, oilfield services and related businesses. The offshore rig utilisation signal captures the investment cycle that drives Akastor's portfolio companies: when rig utilisation falls below 58%, oil companies cut drilling programmes and Akastor's businesses face severe volume declines; when utilisation recovers above 85%, day rates and backlogs recover strongly.
Why Rig Utilisation Drives Akastor
Akastor's primary asset during the 2020–2022 cycle was its stake in MHWirth — one of the world's leading drilling equipment manufacturers. MHWirth's revenues are directly tied to the number of offshore drilling rigs operating globally: when utilisation is low, day rates are low, and rig operators defer equipment upgrades and maintenance. When utilisation is high, operators invest aggressively in equipment to lock in high day rates.
Akastor's holding company structure means the rig utilisation signal is a leading indicator for its underlying portfolio rather than a direct earnings driver — the signal triggers before the portfolio companies' results show the recovery.
The 2020–2022 Cycle: +21% in 23 Months
Offshore rig utilisation fell to historic lows in 2020 as COVID-19 collapsed oil demand and operators stacked rigs at an unprecedented rate. Akastor fell to NOK 17.5. The recovery — driven by oil price recovery, the resumption of offshore drilling programmes and the strategic sale of MHWirth to Alfa Laval — lifted Akastor to NOK 21.2 by March 2022. A modest gain of 21% in 23 months, reflecting both the short cycle duration and the corporate transformation underway.
Akastor's Limited Cycle History
Akastor was created as a spin-off from Aker Solutions in 2014 — giving it limited cycle history for backtesting. The 2020–2022 cycle is the primary completed cycle available for analysis. The company's ongoing transformation into a pure financial holding structure makes future cycle behaviour harder to predict from historical patterns.
Key Risks
Akastor's main risks are its concentrated portfolio (heavy exposure to a small number of assets), the ongoing strategic review of remaining holdings, and the general offshore services cyclicality. As a holding company, it also trades at a discount to its net asset value — which can narrow or widen independently of the underlying cycle.
Cycle Performance Summary
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Oslo Børs |
| Buy date | April 2020 |
| Buy price | NOK 17.5 |
| Sell date | March 2022 |
| Sell price | NOK 21.2 |
| Return | +21% |
| Duration | 23 months |
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